- 62% of all homes sold in top U.S. Metropolitan Statistical Areas (MSAs) in 2018 sold below their original list prices; more than half sold at least 2% below original list prices
- 6 of the top 10 markets where homes sold below original list prices in 2018 were in the South, with Miami at number 1, followed by New Orleans and Chicago
- Knock predicts 77% of current on-market listings will sell below original list prices in Q1 2019, with half of the top 10 markets in the South, and Miami having the highest rate of “deals” at 89%
Knock, on a mission to make trading-in a home as easy as trading-in a car, today released the results of the inaugural National Knock Deals Forecast, predicting which U.S. markets will have the highest percentage of homes that sell below their original list prices heading into 2019, and how these compare to homes sold in 2018.
“Knock has developed six predictive algorithms to determine how much our Home Trade-in customers’ homes will sell for and when, and we’re excited to bring these insights to consumers nationwide,” said Sean Black, Co-founder and CEO of Knock. “By applying these algorithms, which we call Knock Deals, to the top U.S. markets, we hope to help more home buyers find and act on the best deals, and increase overall market fluidity.”
Leveraging its proprietary predictive algorithms, the company analyzed on-market listings in the largest U.S. MSAs to determine the markets with the highest percentage of homes predicted to sell below their original list prices, or what Knock defines as a “deal.” Knock factors in nearly 200 data points to determine the probability of each home selling at various levels above or below its original list price, and then aggregates those probabilities to get a market-wide prediction. In November, 80% of U.S. homes sold within 4% of the Knock predicted final sale price, and 50% sold within 2% of the predicted final sale price.
Knock also analyzed all 2018 listings sold through the end of November to determine where the most homes sold below their original list prices in 2018. The number one predicted MSA for deals heading into 2019, Miami, also saw the highest rate of deals in 2018.
“While there’s no denying that home prices have been steadily on the rise, list prices are clearly increasing above realistic levels, corroborated by the study’s findings that over 60% of homes sold well below their original list prices in 2018,” said Paul Habibi, Economic Advisor to Knock and Lecturer at UCLA Anderson School of Management. “The National Knock Deals Forecast builds on these historical sale patterns to predict where home buyers can find the most savings across current on-market listings.”
2018: Overpriced listings led to greater savings off home values
See interactive map of 2018 home sale findings here.
While the rate of home price increases has begun to slow, they are still up 5.1% year over year, according to the S&P CoreLogic Case-Shiller Indices. As prices have gone up, so have home sellers’ expectations of their home values. When sellers price homes aggressively, they often sell not just below their original list prices, but below market value because they sit on the market for a longer period of time. For homes that sold in November, Knock found that 92% of listings that had been on the market two months or more sold below their list prices — 22% more than the rate of all listings that sold below their original list prices in November. Additionally, on average these homes sold for 1.5% less than the overall market.
The effects of unrealistically overpricing homes are also reflected in the difference between sale prices and original list prices of all recently sold homes. In November, Knock found that 70% of listings sold below their original list price across markets. While the annual average is lower at 61%, it is still reflective of the vast majority of markets — at least 60% of homes sold below original list prices in 27 of the 45 markets Knock analyzed.
While seasonality plays a role, even in the month with the lowest rate of deals, May, over 55% of listings sold below their original list price. Additionally, a certain degree of price inflation is common, but Knock determined this also was not the main factor in homes selling below original list prices. 39% of 2018 U.S. listings did sell within 2% of list prices, but another 48% of homes sold for 2% or more below list prices. Comparatively, just 13% of homes sold for 2% or more above list prices.
Take the top market Miami, for example: 76% of listings sold at least 2% below original list prices, compared to 3% of listings selling 2% or more above original list prices. Of course, the ratios are very different in a market like SanFrancisco, where 58% of listings sold at least 2% above original list prices. But given that the majority of all U.S. listings still sold 2% or more below list price, it’s clear that these underpriced markets are the exception rather than the norm.
2019: Southern markets to drive increased deals
See interactive map of Q1 2019 forecasted home sale findings here.
Based on predictions of all listings that hit the market in the past six weeks, five out of the 10 top markets for deals are in the Southern half of the U.S. Miami continues to top the list, with Houston, TX, Jacksonville, FL, New Orleans, LA and Tampa, FL also having some of the highest predicted rates of deals heading into 2019.
Average savings are on the rise in these markets. Given that the slowdown of home price increases is just beginning to take hold, we can expect home sellers to continue to set their original list prices on the higher end, which has the potential to result in greater deals for home buyers. Particularly as we head into January, which has historically been one of the best months for deals, the combination of seasonality and the slowing market make the perfect recipe for the increased rate of deals predicted by the Knock Deals Forecast.
For instance, Miami homebuyers saved an average 4.4% off original list prices in 2018, and Knock predicts the average savings will be 6.8% across current on-market listings added within the past 16 weeks. On a home priced within the $450,00-$500,000 range, the range with the highest predicted percent of deals, that could mean an additional savings over 2018 of as much as $10,000.
Days on market are expected to play a similar role heading into 2019 as Knock saw in 2018. 83% of homes that had been on the market for at least two months at the time of the prediction are expected to sell below original list prices, compared to 77% overall. Additionally, average predicted savings for this segment of homes is 6.5%, which is 2.5% more than the nationwide average. To again cite the example of Miami, average predicted savings on homes that have been on the market for at least two months spikes to 10.2%. On a $500,000 home that has lingered on the market, this could mean a savings of up to $50,000 for the buyer.
71% of home sellers are also buying their next home at the same time. One of the greatest roadblocks to market fluidity is these consumers’ inability to afford their next home while selling their old one. By providing them with transparency into pricing patterns and insights into where they can find the best deals through regular national Knock Deals Forecasts, Knock aims to help more sellers move into their next home more quickly, increasing inventory and overall market fluidity. Knock already provides these insights to both buyers and sellers in the markets it is currently operational in, in the form of its unique Knock Deals Home Search Tool and associated alerts.
Knock trains a suite of machine learning models on historical real estate data going back three years. The models, trained on 200 features across the top U.S. Metropolitan Statistical Areas by population size, are able to predict listing outcomes like the likelihood in selling, the selling price, when various price drops will occur and by how much, and how long it will take to sell. These models take into account seasonal trends, longer-term market trends, and hyperlocal information, inclusive of the real-life pricing activities of individual real estate agents, to make their predictions.
To understand what is happening at the market level, the probable outcomes for each listing are aggregated over all the listings in a market to produce what is likely to happen for the entire market. In order to predict the proportion of upcoming deals to expect in each market, Knock predicts the probability of a listing selling at various levels below the original list price. We also adjust these aggregated probabilities by the likelihood that the listings will sell. These probabilities are then aggregated within each market resulting in a market-wide prediction.
Additionally, Knock analyzed data on home sales through November 30, 2018 in the same 45 MSAs across various time frames, e.g. year to date, by month, etc., to determine trends in homes selling below original list prices, and how they compare to the Knock Deals Forecast predictions heading into 2019.
- Time Frame: Predictions are based on 484,843 active listings added to the market in the past 16 weeks as of November 30, 2018; and historical sales include 1.8 million homes sold between January 1, 2018 and November 30, 2018.
- Market size: 45 of the top 50 MSAs were analyzed; not included due to data sourcing and therefore accuracy challenges are Las Vegas, NV, Milwaukee, WI, Seattle, WA, Sacramento, CA and Virginia Beach, VA.
- Outlier filtering: In order to remove price changes that are likely due to typos or unusually priced listings, we remove listings from our calculations where the price has increased or decreased by two-fold. This removes about 0.1% of the listings.
- Home type: Study includes single family homes (attached, detached, condo); excludes land sales, mobile homes, income properties, multi-family properties, foreclosures, short-sales, new construction.
- Price band: Study includes homes in the $50,000-$5,000,000 range.
- Days on market: Knock measures these as the difference between list date and pending date.
Data for both the predictive and historical analyses sourced from ATTOM Data Solutions.
DOWNLOAD THE FULL ANALYSIS DATA HERE
Knock (www.knock.com) is the first online home trade-in platform, a revolutionary new approach of home buying and selling that makes it as easy to trade-in your home as it is to trade-in your car. Launched by founding team members of Trulia.com, the company uses data science to price homes accurately, technology to sell them quickly and a dedicated team of local licensed experts to guide consumers through every step of the process. Knock’s top tier investors include RRE, Redpoint, Greycroft, Corazon Capital, Correlation Ventures,Great Oaks Venture Capital and FJ Labs. The company has offices in New York, San Francisco, Atlanta, Charlotte, Raleigh-Durham, Dallas and Fort Worth, with several more on the way.